Despite typhoon disruptions, Macau casinos post exceptional performance during critical holiday period
Record-Breaking Performance Amid Weather Challenges
Macau's casino industry has delivered its strongest Golden Week performance in over five years, generating MOP 5.5 billion (US$686.1 million) in gross gaming revenue (GGR) during the first five days of October. According to analysis from JP Morgan, this translates to a daily average of MOP 1.1 billion (US$138 million), signaling robust recovery in the world's premier gaming destination.
The October Golden Week—coinciding with mainland China's National Day holiday and Mid-Autumn Festival—drew 790,016 visitors to Macau during this period, averaging approximately 158,000 daily arrivals. This figure aligned closely with tourism authorities' projections of 150,000 daily visitors, despite significant disruption from Typhoon Matmo on October 5, which caused a 25% drop in visitation compared to the previous day.
"The extended eight-day holiday this year provides additional runway for revenue generation compared to last year's seven-day break," noted JP Morgan analysts DS Kim, Selina Li, and Lindsey Qian in their market assessment. "This should help maintain momentum throughout the entire holiday period."
Premium Play Drives Revenue Gains
The impressive financial results stem from increased spending across multiple player segments. Premium mass players have demonstrated particular strength, with average bets rising approximately 6% compared to the previous year. Additionally, new baccarat side bets have gained popularity, further contributing to revenue growth.
While year-on-year growth registered at a relatively modest 3%, analysts remain bullish about the market's trajectory. JP Morgan's team emphasized they "were not concerned about the momentum," noting that visitors affected by the typhoon would likely reschedule their trips, potentially extending the revenue surge beyond the traditional peak days.
The brokerage maintains its full-month GGR forecast of MOP 23 billion (US$2.87 billion) for October, which would represent an 11-13% increase year-over-year and establish a new six-year high for monthly gaming revenue in Macau.
Market Reaction and Stock Performance
Despite the strong revenue figures, gaming stocks experienced downward pressure following Typhoon Matmo's impact on visitor arrivals. Melco International shares dropped 6.5%, while MGM China fell 4.7%. Other major operators including Sands China, Galaxy Entertainment, and SJM Holdings all saw declines of approximately 2%.
Market analysts view these fluctuations as temporary, focusing instead on the sector's promising long-term outlook. JP Morgan projects continued double-digit GGR growth through at least Q1 2026, supported by macroeconomic tailwinds including a strengthening yuan and improved industrial profits in mainland China.
Looking Beyond Golden Week
The October performance represents significant progress in Macau's recovery journey, particularly following September disruptions caused by Typhoon Ragasa, which had forced a complete casino shutdown. The resilience demonstrated during this Golden Week period suggests the gaming hub has regained substantial momentum.
"The combination of extended holiday duration, sustained premium mass demand, and favorable currency conditions positions Macau for continued growth through year-end and beyond," according to industry observers. This positive trajectory is expected to translate into substantial earnings growth for casino operators in the coming quarters.
As visitor patterns normalize following the typhoon disruption, analysts anticipate GGR growth will accelerate in the second week of October, projecting a daily average of MOP 750 million (US$94 million)—representing mid-to-high teen growth compared to the same period last year.
The strong Golden Week performance reinforces Macau's status as Asia's gaming powerhouse and signals that the region's recovery from earlier challenges remains firmly on track.
